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Analysis of gasoline and diesel prices in the Czech Republic
Badáňová, Martina ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Šopov, Boril (referee)
This thesis investigates relationship between fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices in the Czech Republic and world crude oil prices over the period from 2004 to 2011. Using daily data we estimate an asymmetric error correction model and we find that in the short-run fuel prices are adjusted upwards to the long-run equilibrium faster than they are adjusted downwards to the equilibrium. However, the difference in responses is found to be not statistically significant.
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Crude Oil Price Forecast based on Text News
Skalický, Jan ; Bojar, Ondřej (advisor) ; Žabokrtský, Zdeněk (referee)
For crude oil price forecast, there is a whole range of algorithms. In this thesis we bring out a new perspective on this issue and introduce our project COPF. Using a maximum entropy classifier, we try to predict the change in crude oil price from text information available on the Internet. We are taking advantage of the knowledge of experts in the field. As a part of the thesis, we tested and improved COPF precision. We have found out that this approach poses a lot of interesting problems. In the current state, the precision of our prediction surpassed the baseline but for further development, it is necessary to obtain more data sources. Our algorithm has never been regarded as a self-standing method but it may nicely complement numerical algorithms.
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Crude Oil Price Forecast based on Text News
Skalický, Jan ; Bojar, Ondřej (advisor) ; Žabokrtský, Zdeněk (referee)
For crude oil price forecast, there is a whole range of algorithms. In this thesis we bring out a new perspective on this issue and introduce our project COPF. Using a maximum entropy classifier, we try to predict the change in crude oil price from text information available on the Internet. We are taking advantage of the knowledge of experts in the field. As a part of the thesis, we tested and improved COPF precision. We have found out that this approach poses a lot of interesting problems. In the current state, the precision of our prediction surpassed the baseline but for further development, it is necessary to obtain more data sources. Our algorithm has never been regarded as a self-standing method but it may nicely complement numerical algorithms.
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Analysis of gasoline and diesel prices in the Czech Republic
Badáňová, Martina ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Šopov, Boril (referee)
This thesis investigates relationship between fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices in the Czech Republic and world crude oil prices over the period from 2004 to 2011. Using daily data we estimate an asymmetric error correction model and we find that in the short-run fuel prices are adjusted upwards to the long-run equilibrium faster than they are adjusted downwards to the equilibrium. However, the difference in responses is found to be not statistically significant.
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Fundamental and technical analysis of crude oil price
Vilisova, Anastasiya ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Galuška, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to evaluate the possibility of foundation and forecasting the future crude oil price. The first part of the thesis deals with the description of oil market, determination of the main factors influencing the price of oil, and the definition of current trends. The second part presents a theoretical explanation of prediction methods. The third part operates with long-term oil price development using fundamental analysis and the effect of main factors estimation. The fourth part focuses on application of technical analysis emphasising the most usable tools of trading strategies, which are then implemented and evaluated.
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